Green Deal

The oil industry anticipates a quick recovery in oil consumption with records exceeding 100,000 million barrels per day. This burn-rate troubles environmentalists because of global warming caused by a rise of carbon dioxide (CO2). In pre-industrial times, CO2 was below 280 parts per million. Since 1970, atmospheric CO2 levels have risen rapidly and now exceed 400.

Atmospheric conditions on earth are critical for the well-being of life. Slight fluctuations have significant effects. Consider that a 23° tilt in the earth’s axis causes temperature fluctuations from -40°C to +40°C (-40F to 104°F) in some parts of the world. A further increase in CO2 will amplify the extremes in the form of weather patterns that include floods and droughts. Large volcanic eruptions have extinguished lives in the past for a time — burning 100,000 million barrels of oil a day is manmade and continuous.

Citizens in the wealthy West blame governments for inaction while enjoying the convenience of cheap fossil fuel. No one likes changes. When the medical associations in the 1970s realized that smoking tobacco is harmful to human health, the then US president Ronald Reagan said, “Yes, we must do everything to cut down on smoking. But let’s not hurt the tobacco industry” (paraphrased). Applied today, a politically correct solution is driving an electric vehicle (EV) subsidized by taxpayers.

Europe has been more frugal in fossil fuel consumption than North America. As a guideline, North America burns roughly twice the amount of fossil fuel per capita than Europe. Much of this freewheeling consumption rests on promoting the car culture and helping oil industries. Endorsing the EV is less a consumer trend than political pressure. But is this the end-all solution, we ask?

A 2019 study by ADAC*, Germany, and Joanneum Research, Austria, reveals that manufacturing an EV generates more CO2 than a vehicle with an internal combustion engine (ICE). According to a research fellow at the Monash University in Melbourne, Australia, generating 1kWh of electricity by coal produces 1kg of CO₂, similar to driving 6km (3.75 miles) in a luxury car. Manufacturing a 1kWh Li-ion produces 75kg of CO₂, the same as burning 35 liters (7.7 gallons) of gasoline.

Table 1 compares the CO2 emitted manufacturing and driving vehicles with a diesel engine versus an electric powertrain.

Based on higher CO2 emissions building an EV versus a vehicle with ICE, the EV needs to drive 225,000km to break even with a diesel-powered vehicle. (Volkswagen marks this odometer reading as the end-of-life of a car.) Labeling EV zero-emission is incorrect because in most regions electricity is generated by fossil fuel. Producing 1kWh of electricity by coal produces 0.94kg (2 lbs) of CO2.

Unless electricity can be produced from renewable resources, the EV does not provide the expected solution to CO2 reduction. A compromise is a mild hybrid with a small ICE and a 48V battery that reduces fuel consumption by up to 40%. A plug-in hybrid would provide most daily commuting by battery power. Focus should be on vehicle size and weight. A full-size EV battery weighs 500kg (1,100 lb) and represents 40% of the vehicle cost.

The planned CO2 reductions by 2050 may not be feasible or affordable with today’s technologies. Changing road transport from fossil fuel to electric is expected to double electric energy demand; however EVs can be charged at night during low usage. Most houses are also heated with natural gas that generates CO2. Changing to electrical heat will further stress the electrical grid. Because of high calorific value, air travel will continue to rely on fossil fuel.

To meet future electrical demands with EVs, renewable energy and battery backup are added to the grid. This tri-state system of a steady resource, renewables and battery backup must be designed to sustain worst-case conditions when renewable energy is non-existent. Batteries only provide shortterm energy supply and perform poorly at low temperatures. We also include high costs. Energy delivered by a battery doubles the cost of a kWh. Generating electricity by renewable energy is more expensive than fossil fuel or nuclear.

Renewable energy is sporadic and excess may one day be stored in hydrogen to power fuel cells. A more common energy storage system is pumped hydro in which excess water is pumped into an elevated reservoir for later use. Flywheels and supercapacitors will provide short-term power to ultrafast charge EVs in regions not supported by a high power grid. Typical users will be hotels and motels.

Conclusion

Europe is aware of the energy footprint and participates in energy saving, a less popular hobby in North America. Careless use of precious energy is visible in private transportation. Commuting to work could be solved with rapid transit systems in which commuter gets the morning exercise by traveling to the train station by light mobility in the form of a bike or scooter. America has no high-speed rail. With fast rail service, people could live in smaller towns and commute to city centers by train. Such infrastructure would not only lower CO2 emissions but also decrease the cost-ofliving. Europe and Asia are ahead of North America in modern transportation systems. Switching to the EV is not the end-all solution and government subsidies should go towards public transportation.

Reference:

Presentation by Hans-Werner Sinn at VHS Erding, Munich (2021)

Study ADAC with Joanneum Research in Graz, Austria (2019)

* ADAC is an acronym for Allgemeiner Deutscher Automobil-Club; General German Automobile Club. ADAC is Europe's largest motoring association.